2021 Rallys

[craigctt]

The organisers of the Isle of Man TT have also recentley cancelled next year which brings in millions for the islands economy. I know it's not steam (but there is steam on the Island). IMO even if a vaccine is rolled out in the next few months, or the virus dies out naturally. I wouldn't bet on any steam rallys going on in the UK during 2021. And IMO it's the best thing. We all need to be safe and not contract the virus, nor spread it on. Leave the rallys out until corona has gone, dusted and we are safe. Any organiser of any gathering of any sort of event, who is organising for 2021, needs to think and not be stupid. Lives are worth a lot more than money in my opinion. Hopefully we will all still be here in 2022

[Earl Kitchener]

I think the event industry, if only privately, discounted next year months ago just down to practicalities. Although for obvious reasons I no longer write into the outdoor trade I did take a look in October and concluded that the feeling was since the government's approach to managing this virus, reaction to statistics and imposition of restrictions at short notice, had not changed in seven months you simply couldn't plan anything. That was before the Leader of the Conservative Party ditched his one pal and imposed month long restrictions. At that time Michael Eavis was talking about massive testing arrangements if Glastonbury takes place next year (one does wonder at even mentioning this idea) though they were aiming for a date in June while Boomtown were already selling tickets for August despite the fact that they still have roll-overs from 2020 un-refunded. At least the Jockey Club aren't yet selling tickets for the Cheltenham Festival meeting yet and given the jumpiness of Gloucestershire County Council that's sensible. Goodwood Motorsport are only promising alerts at this stage. The big issue for some is that they are still holding advance money which at some time they will have to refund.

I do occasionally wonder of the only large scale event that might take place here next year is a general election.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Earl Kitchener

The big issue for some is that they are still holding advance money which at some time they will have to refund.
.

I have a show that we were booked in with a stand and are still holding nearly £2k of my money. The show was scheduled for May and I paid in November 2019.

I've created a lot of fuss and the best they offered me was 50% back. They've threatened much higher pitch fees etc if I press further.

They are enforcing roll-over to 2021.

I am sure there are many of these events doing this (larger, more professional ones)

[Earl Kitchener]

Mrs K is the same. It's going to change many traders' willingness to book months in advance. Those that survive that is.

[8_10 Brass Cleaner]

Things will return to relative normality quicker than you think.

The statistics tell us a number of things. Ok, the figures never all match when you shop around to find them, but there are some clear patterns.

More than half the deaths are in those 80+

A further third are 60 to 79 of age.

Less than 1% are 20 - 39.

Less than 0.1% are 19 or younger.

The risk seems to jump a magnitude at 40 and again at 60.

Looking at the deaths yesterday. Say 600. And bearing in mind we for some irish reason class a COVID death as someone who has died within 28 days of contracting covid.

So At least 300 of them deaths are 80+

At least 200 more are 60 - 79.

You might say no more than around 50 are 40 - 60

You might say that no more than around 6 are younger 20 - 39.

When you drill down, you find that co-morbidities also has a huge contribution to make in all age groups. And the death of someone otherwise healthy is very rare indeed.

I initially believed that immunizing those in care homes was a waste, and that immunizing those of working age would be better, to get life back to normal quicker. Rather than those in the twilight of their lives.

However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths.

Get the 60 - 79 age group done also, and you've got a minimum of 83% of the deaths reduced.

And that gives us about 16% of the population immune, but also not spreading it about.

Given that it is very likely that a larger proportion of the population has had Covid, than the media would have us believe, and therefore is either immune, or are protected by some sort of residual immunity (dont believe facebook, if you've had it, you will have some immunity, if not be totally immune for a significant period of time). And this proportion continues to grow. Some localized studies have shown a significant percentage of immunity in some hotspots.

If they can roll out the immunizations for the elderly, vulnerable etc etc. And by 2019 figures 2.24million 80+, 8.51 million 60 - 79, by early spring, with the warmer weather improving prognosis, more heard immunity etc etc. I think it is likely that public events will be possible in the later summer, though I expect that masks and various protection measures are going to be with us for some time.

[ferguson_tom]

Originally Posted by 8_10 Brass Cleaner

However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths..

I wouldnt be at all suprised if come March/April the government decide not to bother vaccinating people under 40-50 ish years old. For groups not in the old and vulnerable category the virus seems to be no worse then a bad dose of the flu or, in most cases, mild or asymptomatic.

What they have achieved in producing the vaccine so quickly is nothing short of incredible, however I think although everyone involved is confident in its safety going from a trial of thousands to a national program vaccinating millions is a different story and there will always be the "what if factor" with any new vaccine. For people that are not at real risk of the virus they may decided to remove that factor and not give it to them.

[Malc-Y]

Thanks Hedd, you've cheered me up no end,

Malc. (age 76)

[LiveSteam]

Originally Posted by Earl Kitchener

I do occasionally wonder of the only large scale event that might take place here next year is a general election.

To be honest thats just another waste of time money and effort, as if any of the other parties will be any better.

As the old saying goes “You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time”