Things will return to relative normality quicker than you think.
The statistics tell us a number of things. Ok, the figures never all match when you shop around to find them, but there are some clear patterns.
More than half the deaths are in those 80+
A further third are 60 to 79 of age.
Less than 1% are 20 - 39.
Less than 0.1% are 19 or younger.
The risk seems to jump a magnitude at 40 and again at 60.
Looking at the deaths yesterday. Say 600. And bearing in mind we for some irish reason class a COVID death as someone who has died within 28 days of contracting covid.
So At least 300 of them deaths are 80+
At least 200 more are 60 - 79.
You might say no more than around 50 are 40 - 60
You might say that no more than around 6 are younger 20 - 39.
When you drill down, you find that co-morbidities also has a huge contribution to make in all age groups. And the death of someone otherwise healthy is very rare indeed.
I initially believed that immunizing those in care homes was a waste, and that immunizing those of working age would be better, to get life back to normal quicker. Rather than those in the twilight of their lives.
However, the stats tell it differently, Get a large proportion of the 80+ groups immunized, and you save half the deaths.
Get the 60 - 79 age group done also, and you've got a minimum of 83% of the deaths reduced.
And that gives us about 16% of the population immune, but also not spreading it about.
Given that it is very likely that a larger proportion of the population has had Covid, than the media would have us believe, and therefore is either immune, or are protected by some sort of residual immunity (dont believe facebook, if you've had it, you will have some immunity, if not be totally immune for a significant period of time). And this proportion continues to grow. Some localized studies have shown a significant percentage of immunity in some hotspots.
If they can roll out the immunizations for the elderly, vulnerable etc etc. And by 2019 figures 2.24million 80+, 8.51 million 60 - 79, by early spring, with the warmer weather improving prognosis, more heard immunity etc etc. I think it is likely that public events will be possible in the later summer, though I expect that masks and various protection measures are going to be with us for some time.
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